6 predictions for 2024

Alas, it’s a new year. Forget 2023. Forget even 2022 or, as many call it, “worse than 2023.”

And if you even mention 2021, you deserve what you get.

Looking back, we’ve had a string of tough years. The optimism of January is replaced by the stark, cold reality of February, and the rest of the months generally fall into a pattern of both hope and despair—much like the typical New York Mets season.

Every cloud, however, has a silver lining. It’s time to turn over a new leaf and invent a new idiom.

In years past, we judged the new year by comparing it to the old: “As long as it’s different from the last one” was our hope, not remembering how well that worked out when we tried all of those kale recipes.

However, each year has been distinct—even when talking about the same thing.

Take, for example, our views of COVID:

• 2021: COVID is terrible.
• 2022: COVID is bad.
• 2023: My new dog is named “COVID.”

Or how we looked at interest rates:

• 2021: We pay 0.0005%, and people should be thankful.
• 2022: We’ve had to raise our rates to 0.005%—a tenfold increase.
• 2023: I’m selling plasma to pay for our borrowings.

When looking at 2024, it may seem impossible to foretell the future. History has shown that every time something looks inevitable, somebody invents another spot on the bingo card you never knew you needed.

That said, some predictions are so obvious and predictable that even a humor writer might get something close.

So, here are my six predictions for 2024:

1. Interest rates will bounce up and down like a Jack Russell terrier on Red Bull. Business networks will claim, simultaneously, that the economy is in a recession, missing a recession, and is now in a recession.

2. Loans will continue to be hard to come by due to the affordability gap between what sellers want and what buyers can afford. This will be especially acute in areas such as auto loans, where both rates and prices remain high.

3. Artificial Intelligence will continue to be a buzzword, shaping everything from new products to the analysis of a credit union’s complete financial, operational, and technical abilities.

4. Asset quality will become a buzzword as the “R” word gets bandied about yet again. Like the schoolyard poem goes, “Roses are red, violets are blue, my forecast will be right around 2042.”

5. An election will happen. Most will think, afterward, that it was a terrible, no-good idea. Many do already.

6. Financial institutions that have heavy investments in commercial office buildings will continue to lament their decision—not unlike Denver Broncos fans regretting their trade for the Seattle Seahawks’ quarterback.

The one thing I can guarantee is that 2024 will be fundamentally different from 2023. As every investment disclosure says, “past results are not indicative of future returns.”

Looking to the past to predict the future rarely works unless you’re talking about the Seattle Mariners. Estimates and forecasts are about as useful as a screen door in a submarine.

Credit unions should plan for several potential scenarios going forward—just like we’ve had to do since 2020.

JAMES COLLINS is a humor columnist and vice president of finance at $3.6 billion asset Sandia Laboratory Federal Credit Union in Albuquerque, N.M.